Dummy
s- Kxxxx
h- KQxx
d- KQ
c- AJ
Pard
s- AQ
h- xxx
d- xxxx
c- 1098x
Declarer won partner's Club lead in hand with the King and
immediately led the ten of Spades. Hoping that your only HCP
would be the Spade Jack, partner played the s-QUEEN.
Declarer thought for a while, looked at both of you, and
then wondered if the Theory of Restricted Choice applied in a
case where so many poor players would panic and play the Ace
here. Knowing that, in this case at least, the Theory made
more mathematical sense than common sense, Declarer made the
expert's choice here: he played...SMALL!
You deposited your singleton Jack of Spades under
partner's Queen and watched as Declarer conceded down one.
Upon seeing your partner's Ace, Declarer became effusive
in his praise for the defence. As you chorus your own
approval, your partner engages Declarer in a discussion of
the Theory. Declarer explains that, had he known he was
playing against an expert opponent, he'd have applied the
TRC and played the King. After all, he argued, the "relevant
holdings are s-AQ, s-AJ and s-QJ in your hand. 2-to-1 to
rise with the King".
"How," your partner asks politely, "is s-AJ in
my hand a relevant holding once I play the Queen?"
Declarer went ashen white, hearing your partner challenge
orthodoxy.
"It's like Monty Hall on `Let's Make a Deal'," Declarer
explained indulgently. "You make a 1-in-3 guess and, assuming
you haven't chosen the booby prize goat, Monty shows you the
goat and offers to let you switch. Your chances haven't
improved since the original choice. You should switch. The
odds are 2-to-1. Showing you a HERD of goats won't change
that. Simple."
"But what if you chose the goat originally? Isn't the
game over before it begins?"
Before Declarer can respond your partner looks at his
watch and then out the window at the evening sky. He thanks
you warmly for the game, excuses himself and leaves.
Epilogue
No one saw the stranger after that night. You ask around.
Did anyone know where he came from? Where he went to? No.
The game just hasn't been the same since. These days,
you come out to the duplicate club only for evening sessions.
Once there, you insist on sitting North-South near the window.
On this particular night, your eyes glaze over as you tune out
your partner's droning about how well he just executed a
Stepping Stone Squeeze. You turn your head and stare out at
the heavens. For a moment your gaze is captured by a bright
star in a far-off constellation. It flashes twice in tune
with your heartbeat...
...and disappears.
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