Hand Evaluation
So critical to "bidding judgement" as to be
almost interchangeable terms, "hand evaluation" is
a process which CONTINUES during the auction. As
the bidding proceeds, bad hands often "improve"
while good hands sometimes turn into dirt.
While these random thoughts on the subject pale in
comparison to Mike Lawrence's great contributions
to this area, they may serve as a basis for
subsequent refinement.
The Work Point Count
The Work Point Count is the easiest and most
basic of all methods of distinguishing good hands
from bad ones. This method simply assigns "High
Card Points", or "HCPs", according to this formula:
Any Ace = 4 HCPs.
Any King = 3 HCPs.
Any Queen = 2 HCPs.
Any Jack = 1 HCPs.
There are 40 HCPs in the deck, then (16 in
Aces, 12 in Kings, 8 in Queens and 4 in Jacks).
Distributional Points
Standard practice is to add "distributional
points" to our HCP total to get a "total points"
evaluation. This is a reflection of the fact that
a 6-5-1-1 hand with 8 HCPs will usually take far
more tricks than a 4-3-3-3 distribution hand with
8 HCPs. There are TWO types of distributional
points.
LONG SUIT POINTS are awarded: 1 for any
card in any suit BEYOND 4 cards. 6-5-1-1 hands,
then, would have THREE Long suit points for the
5th and 6th cards in the longest suit, and for
the 5th card in the 5-card suit. The 4-3-3-3,
4-4-3-2 and 4-4-4-1 hands receive NO such points.
SHORT SUIT POINTS are awarded: 1 for any
doubleton, 2 for any singleton and 3 for any
void. A 6-5-1-1 hand, then, would have FOUR
SHORT SUIT POINTS, 2 for each singleton, while
the 4-3-3-3 hand receives NONE.
Since we do NOT award LONG suit AND SHORT
suit points to the same hand, the question arises:
When do we use one and not the other?
The general rule here is that we use SHORT
suit points whenever we have "major suit length",
which we will define as ANY 5+card major OR 4-4 in
the majors. We use LONG suit points only if we
do NOT have "major suit length". Hence, with
4-1-4-4 distribution, we assign NO distributional
points; but with 4-4-1-4 distribution, we assign
TWO points for the singleton Diamond.
The reason for this is that with minor suit
length we will usually endeavour to play in NO TRUMP,
where short suits are something of a LIABILITY, and
long suits may provide a source of tricks. Only with
an 8+card MAJOR suit fit will we usually eschew No
Trump play in favour of suit play, where short suits
allow us to score tricks with our small trumps.
Open any hand that has 13+ points.
Responder counts hir distributional points
in the same way UNTIL supporting partner's 5-card
suit. THEN Responder uses an accelerated version
of SHORT suit points known as "DUMMY Points": 1 for
any doubleton, 3 for any singleton, 5 for any void.
This reflects that fact that any ruffs with Dummy's
(presumably) shorter trump length will ADD to the
total number of trump tricks that we will take.
ROLANDS
Some modern pairs prefer the Rule Of Long AND
Short Suits ("ROLANDS") when evaluating hands as
possible Openers. Here, we add our HCPs to the
total number of cards in our TWO LONGEST suits. If
the total is 20 or more, we open.
We see a variation of ROLANDS in evaluating
PRE-EMPTIVE hands. Here, we add the total number
of cards in our long suit to the total number of
honours (Ace, King, Queen or Jack) in that suit,
and pre-empt at that level. With S-KQxxxx, then,
we would open 2S (two top honours + Six spades
is EIGHT, so we contract for eight tricks with 2S).
The "In and Out" Theory
A secondary honour (i.e. 10, Jack or Queen)
in our of our long suits (yours or partner's)
should be treated as gold. Secondary honours
in our short suits are usually worthless. The
ideal supporting hand, then, has ACES (and Kings)
in the suits partner is NOT bidding, Queens and
Jacks in the suits partner IS bidding.
Cover Cards
Any card which will cover one of partner's
losers is a "cover card". An Ace opposite a void
MAY or MAY NOT cover one of partner's losers
(depending on whether partner can cash this Ace
before the opponents cash their winners). A King
opposite a singleton is NOT a cover card.
Consistent with the "In and Out" theory above,
secondary honours in partner's long suit should
be viewed as cover cards.
It is a rule of thumb in bidding that we
will take partner for ONE cover card for every
FOUR HCPs that Parner has shown in the auction.
This is called the "4-Point Principle". For
example, if partner opens 1NT, we would play hir
for (16 / 4 = ) FOUR such cover cards, since 16 HCPs
is an AVERAGE 1NT opener (15-17). Similarly, after
1H:2H, Opener might guess that Responder will hold
about (8 / 4 = ) TWO "cover cards", since 8 points
is about average for such a raise.
The Onside Principle
Having strength in RHO's suits is good, since
the chances of these cards taking tricks increases.
Having LENGTH in RHO's suits is also good, since
partner can over-ruff LHO (who, along with partner,
is likely short in this suit). Length or strength
in LHO's suit should be devaluated.
Defensive Honours
When your Kings and secondary honours are in
THEIR suits choose to defend. A singleton King
opposite "xxx" won't take a trick on offence, but
it may on defence!
Death Holdings
Doubletons are disastrous holdings -- especially
in competitive situations. If the opponents sacrifice
against your game, tend to double and NOT to bid on
when holding a doubleton (especially one in their suit).
Tripletons are "death holdings" too, although often not
quite as bad as doubletons, since tripletons raise
the possibility of PARTNER having a singleton or void.
Good Spot Cards
Spot cards become most important in two instances:
when you are considering doubling the opponents based
on long trumps; and, when you are considering a
pre-emptive opening bid. I would rather open 2H on
QJ109xx than on KQxxxx; opposite a singleton or a
void the first suit will lose two tricks, the second
suit likely 3 tricks. When one of our suits has
been supported spot cards are less important -- especially
if there is likely a 9+card trump fit. When YOU have
a long suit with good spots that partner is reluctant
to support you must act aggressively, since partner may
be looking at a singleton or void and be worried about
multiple slow trump losers.
